French Regulator Probes Polymarket Following $50M Trump Election Bet

France’s gambling regulator, Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), is investigating crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket for compliance with French gambling laws. The scrutiny comes in the wake of a French trader’s massive $50 million profit from betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election.

The trader, identified only as Théo, placed approximately $30 million in bets across four accounts predicting Trump’s win, despite polls suggesting a close race with Kamala Harris. While the wagers initially sparked manipulation concerns, Polymarket stated it investigated the trader’s activity and found no evidence of market manipulation, noting his extensive trading experience and financial services background.

“We are aware of this site and are currently examining its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation,” an ANJ spokesperson told CoinDesk. French crypto news outlet The Big Whale reported that the regulator is expected to ban access to the site soon, citing an unnamed source who emphasized that despite its use of cryptocurrencies, Polymarket’s operations constitute betting activity, which is strictly regulated in France.

The New York-based platform, which allows traders to bet on real-world outcomes using the USDC stablecoin, has already faced regulatory challenges in the United States. The platform currently blocks U.S. IP addresses following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. During the 2024 election, Polymarket saw record betting volumes, processing over $2.5 billion in trades.

Proponents argue that prediction markets offer more accurate forecasting than traditional polls by incentivizing deep research through real financial stakes. However, election betting remains controversial globally, with U.S. regulators considering new restrictions on such activities.